Pictured are Cleveland Urban News.Com Sportswriter Karl Kimbrough (in yellow t-shirt), Cleveland Browns General Manager Ray Farmer (in grey suit) and Cleveland Browns Head Coach Rick Pettine (in Black suit)

CLEVELAND, Ohio- Can you smell the peanuts and popcorn as the first round of the  NFL Draft gets underway this week and football fans began predicting the possible additions this year to the Cleveland Browns football franchise?

Can you hear the circus music? If you do you must be excited and expecting Texas A& M Quarterback and NFL probable Johnny Manziel to be coming to town with the media circus he will bring with him. Can you hear the fans cheering all over Cleveland? If so,  then you must be expecting fan favorite wide receiver Sammy Watkins to be chosen with Cleveland's first pick.

If there is a collective oh no being heard from every sports bar in Cleveland, then the Browns just selected an offensive lineman at 8:40 pm on May 8th. Cleveland is Browns Town, and the Cleveland fans have their Super Bowl every year when the Browns pick in the top 10 of the NFL draft. This year NFL Draft analysts have come to a consensus on there being four to five players in this year's draft that are a level above their draft class peers.  They are DE Jadeveon Clowney, OLB Khalil Mack, OT Greg Robinson, WR Sammy Watkins, and OT Jake Matthews. That means that with the fourth pick, the Browns will be faced with the choice of choosing an elite player or selecting someone who is more beautiful in their eyes.

The other option could be trading out of the pick. The Browns GM Ray Farmer and Head Coach Mike Pettine are doing everything short of playing Star Wars Jedi mind games with their verbal camouflage to misdirect other GM's through the media as to who they prefer. So, do we have a clue about what the Browns will do on May 8th?

Yes, although this is yet another new Browns regime and a new coach hired this off season. The NFL has trends. It has always been a copycat league. Even back to the first Super Bowl winners, the Green Bay's had a trend of building their team by trading for other teams veterans with their draft picks. That is how the Browns lost Hall of Famer Paul Warfield to the Miami Dolphins. Over half of the 1972 Dolphins roster was made up of players they traded for. They still have the record though as the only team to go undefeated, 17-0 for a season because of those trades.

That trend changed in 1974 when the Pittsburgh Steelers turned their team around. In that draft Pittsburgh chose four players who became Hall of Famers, center Mike Webster, linebacker Jack Lambert, and receivers John Stallworth and Lynn Swan. Pittsburgh had already drafted Terry Bradshaw and Joe Green a few years earlier. That team went on to dominate the NFL in the 1970s and the most other teams have been trying to duplicate the 1974 draft since then. Teams are looking for players who are ready to play now and have become much more sophisticated with their player rating process.

Each player is given a grade or rating for their position for the draft, from a perfect 10 downward. Not only are players graded, but the positions they play and their draft positions are given a value level. It is well known that the NFL is quarterback driven, and now more than ever because the quarterbacks in the league are passing over 60 percent of the time on an average in the league the value of a defensive end or outside rushing linebacker is higher than ever. An offensive tackles value has also increased because teams have a greater need to protect the quarterback. Great receivers are in demand as well because they can change how a defense can attack the offense.

So this makes the top five players, Watson, Clowney, Robinson, Matthews and Mack, more valuable because of the value of their positions. This is where it gets complicated for the Browns. Although they feel like they now have every position on the field covered with a quality player. The one position that is the most questionable is the quarterback, the position of greatest importance. The Browns don't really know what they have in Brian Hoyer because he only played two and a half games as a starter in his career.

None of the top four quarterbacks have a very high grade in this year's draft, but they have a lot of talent, and a very good but not great throwing arms.And they are not ready to start right away in the NFL.

Johnny Manziel is the pride of Texas A&M and  is the highest rated quarterback by more than half of the NFL GM's polled. He is followed by Central Florida's Blake Bortles, and Fresno States Derek Carr. Louisville junior Teddy Bridgewater, who was the highest rated quarterback after the football season ended, has dropped to third or mouth on most teams draft boards. This is due to a bad pro day performance. Although Farmer and Pettine have admitted liking all four, they also feel that each one has holes in their game, and need developing before being able to start.

Out of the four, Manziel is thought to be number one on their list because of his intangibles. He has a good, but does not have a  great throwing arm. But he does have the ability to extend plays, and he can run or escape pressure coupled with the unique ability to throw accurately on the move.

Again, the NFL is a copycat league and the trend is to look for quarterbacks who can throw from the pocket and run like Russell Wilson of the Super Bowl Champion Seattle Seahawks. Will the Browns take Manziel with the fourth pick if he is still available or pass on him, and take the highest rated player on their draft board?

Look for the Browns to stay true to their ratings and take the highest rated player at four, who probably will be Mack, a rush linebacker. Ideally, the Browns would like to find a trade partner in the top 10 and trade out of the fourth pick so they can draft Manziel closer to where they rate him and pick up an extra pick, possibly in the second round.                                                                 

Why?  Because teams have gotten burned by reaching and drafting players above their rating. Cleveland likes Carr's arm and thinks he is a great thrower, and Bortles is the biggest of the top four QB's. But although he has a good arm, he does not throw well on the run.

Bridgewater, is the most mentally ready of the four to start now in the NFL and is very accurate, but does not have the arm strength of the other three, and not as high of a ceiling. Bridgewater is more suited for a “West Coast Offense.”

Manziel is also a fan favorite because of his ability to extend and make plays. But the desire to get Clowney or Mack as well as Watkins is great. So one or more trades in the top 10 is not unlikely. Also, aging quarterbacks are starting for Dallas and Phoenix so they could be looking to draft one of those top four quarterbacks making it very risky for Cleveland not to take one at four.

This year will prove to be one of the more exciting drafts because the talent is deep especially at wide receiver, running back, and corner-back which are play making positions. USC's  wide receiver Marquise Lee would have been the first player draft last season. But because of injuries he suffered this year  early in the season he will probably be the fourth or fifth receiver drafted. If  he can fall in Cleveland's lap at 26 or 35 he can be a game changer.

There are three likely perspectives one might care to know about the Browns before the draft

1. The Browns believe they currently have a very good defense team, and did not get the most out of them last season, especially in the fourth quarter. (The Browns loss five games when they had the lead going in the fourth quarter and that is partly why Pettine was hired as the new coach. That is also why their new motto is, to "Finish the Game,” which they are already chanting at the end of mini camp practices).

2. The posture of Coach Pettine is clear on his wanting fresh talent for the upcoming season and he has mentioned more than once that he is looking for physical aggressive defenders who are violent with their hands. He also wants a quarterback who is tough minded, a leader, a play maker, and has the “ it factor."

3. In addition to a quarterback the Browns are likely to draft a corner back, a wide receiver, a running back and an offensive lineman with their first five picks.

Some of the top Corner-backs, Running Backs, Offensive Lineman and Wide Receivers that should be available for the Browns to chose from.

Cornerbacks:  Kyle Fuller- Virginia Tech
Louche Purifoy- Florida
Jason Verritt- TCU

Running Backs: Jeremy Hill- LSU
Carlos Hyde- Ohio State
James Wilder- FSU

Wide Receivers: Marqise Lee- USC
Allen Robinson- Penn State
Kevin Benjamin- Florida State

Offensive Lineman: Zack Martin- Notre Dame
David Yankey- Stanford
Travis Swanson- Arkansas